Election 2024 Live Blog
Welcome to the Millennial Review Election 2024 Live Blog. This is mostly for my own personal edification and will be updated periodically throughout the night with thoughts and observations that might make it into content later, or not. If you happen to stumble across this, welcome to Millennial Review.
Millennial Review Live Blog
4:43 PM PST: Hard to make anything of the voting data rolling in as is. From this moment it seems Donald Trump is over performing his 2020 numbers in Florida. Kamala Harris seems to over performing Joe Biden’s 2020 numbers in Georgia. But it is still too early to tell in both states. Florida will certainly go for Donald Trump as should be expected with the continuous right turn of the state.
Election Issues: There are issues with potential ballots in Milwaukee being recounted, seemingly largely to avoid ballot counting issues or any allegations of misconduct.
Exit Polls: Exit polls are sending mixed signals. The voters seem angry, some ~70% of voters are dissatisfied with the country, both candidates are underwater in public opinion, Democracy, the Economy, and Abortion are the top three issues, in that order. Some of that bodes well for Kamala Harris, some of it Donald Trump. To the exit polls even this race is hard to call and seemingly incredibly close.
4:50 PM PST: NBC News panel is making a lot about young men in line in Arizona saying they are voting Trump because he went on the Joe Rogan podcast and Kamala Harris didn’t. Slamming her podcast strategy essentially. Seems silly and inconsequential.
I’ll be keeping an eye on Spokane, County later in the night. The county is the biggest population in Washington’s 5th Congressional District and narrowly went to Trump in 2020. That result came with a longstanding Republican incumbent and demographics/population trends that seem to be moving the county blue. It is fairly close to a bell weather in the context of the Pacific Northwest.
5:00 PM PST: One thing is clear in the exit poll data, people want change. There is a debate who is seen as the change candidate. Pre-election polling has placed both candidates as the change candidate. But people are mad, unsure, and divided.
Also, Tennesse, Oklahoma, Missouri, Alabama, Indiana, Kentucky, West Virginia, and Florida were all just called for Donald Trump, nothing unexpected there. Washington D.C. and Massachusetts have been called for Kamala Harris.
Some are remembering when Florida was called early in 2016 and what that portended for Donald Trump’s later victory. Florida has been consistently trending right and this strikes me as Ohio in 2004 to 2012 or something similar. It is firmly out of reach and this result shouldn’t be surprising. That or I’m coping already.
5:40 PM PST: The New York Times needle is back and filling liberals with dread despite the NYT Tech strike. To be fair, it is filling me with dread and memories of 2016. Nothing has really come out of any important battleground state yet, but the feeling I felt when the needle shifted to “lean R” for the first time and the screenshots made their way to social media will be the first omen for me if Donald Trump ends up winning tonight/tomorrow/eventually.
6:22 PM PST: It is too early to say anything for sure and there is a lot of vote left in North Carolina and Georgia, Nevada and Arizona remain to be seen, but it seems Kamala Harris’s biggest chance is the Blue Wall. Early returns seem promising in PA, but a lot left to count.
7:23 PM PST: Still too early but most major networks have called North Carolina, a little more gun shy on Georgia. It really is coming down to the Blue Wall. Pennsylvania Kamala Harris seems to be performing below Biden but above Hillary, leading to an incredibly close race in the state. Michigan and Wisconsin are slowly coming in and the same seems to be holding true there as well.
8:05 PM PST: It now seems like Donald Trump is likely to win the Blue Wall, or at least 1 of the 3 he would need to secure the electoral college. It also seems increasingly likely that he will win the popular vote.
8:38 PM PST: I’m calling it, Donald Trump is going to win the popular vote.
9:35 PM PST: It doesn’t appear that it will even really be that close in the end. Donald Trump will likely win the popular vote and secure over 300 electoral votes. The Blue Wall does not look good, particularly Wisconsin.
10:20 PM PST: The same trajectory continues, just a matter of Kamala Harris losing one of the blue wall states officially and the election is over. Meanwhile Spokane County seems to show a little improvement from 2020 but there is only 69% of the vote and it hovers right around 2020 numbers.
The 5th Congressional District has already been called for the Republican Michael Baumgartener due to a strong showing in the more rural outlying areas of the district.
10:25 PM PST: Trying to remind myself that it seemed hopeless for Joe Biden early in the night in 2020 and then votes came pouring in. A similar dynamic is at play but it just appears Kamala did not have enough juice to match Joe Biden’s numbers.
10:27 PM PST: It will be a few hours before the race can be officially called it seems. Hoping for a win is hope misplaced at this point, not sure I’ll be up late enough to see it called, but also I’m pretty sure I will be. This is a disaster in so many ways. Kamala Harris would have been a disaster in so many ways. There is no winning for working people in this system. But this loss is particularly brutal.
10:53 PM PST: Fox News has called the election for Donald Trump.
11:53 PM PST: Donald Trump just finished his victory speech. Most major outlets haven’t officially called it yet, Fox and conservative media have. Trump will win though and by morning that will likely be reflected in just about every outlet.
Trump’s speech was conciliatory and celebratory, especially compared to the final days of the campaign. Though those fascistic overtones were lurking in the background and not so subtly nodded to.
Trump is back. What new fresh horrors await us remain to be seen.