How Donald Trump Beat the Democrats
Democrats lost to Donald Trump, again. There are a lot of things to blame for that loss. Sexism, racism, a sluggish economy, all of the above. More than any single reason though is the Democrats lack of vision best symbolized by their embrace of one of the most disastrous political legacies in American history.
A lot has been said already about the Harris campaign’s embrace of Dick and Liz Cheney but I think that is a dead horse that needs beat to a pulp. Dick Cheney is more singularly responsible for the death of one million plus people in Iraq than any one person involved in that disaster. When Cheney left office he had an approval rating of 13%. A disastrous number even by modern standards where 35% approval isn’t half bad. The war in Iraq was in many ways the premiere issue of the 2004 campaign and again in 2008. Donald Trump effectively used the war as a cudgel against the Republican establishment in his first campaign in 2016.
If there is one thing that has been consistently true about American politics it is that people do not like overseas adventurism and the American military playing world police. Most notably represented by Iraq. Embracing the architect of that war and his daughter who lost by more than any incumbent in modern history was a mistake on its face, but more than that it represents a total lack of any knowledge of this political moment.
Voters Are Pissed Off
People around the world have consistently rejected incumbent governments and the political status quo, often for right wing governments. Donald Trump, Brexit, Bolsonaro in Brazil, Donald Trump 2.0, the rise of the German right, the list goes on. There are many reasons for this but all of them flow from some rejection of the status quo and a politically opportunist right mobilizing around that dissatisfaction. The world the Dick Cheney’s of the world built is being dismantled and Kamala Harris trotted the Cheney’s out to fight over 5% of the electorate.
Exit polls show some 5% of Republicans voted for Kamala Harris and ballooning that number was the entire strategy. Joe Biden had double that number. They spent months campaigning to Republicans and didn’t even improve their position with them. They did however lose millions of voters to the left in the process. They lost millions of well meaning liberals even, who would have been more energized had Kamala Harris not spent her campaign trying to rehabilitate one of the most dastardly villains in modern American political history. One whom for many of Kamala’s voters was the premiere political villain when they came of voting age.
Democrats Lost Key Votes
Democrats lost men across the board basically and in the case of Black men Donald Trump doubled his support but came short of a majority. There are complex reasons depending on how you break them down but honestly at the end of the day they all seemingly come back to a lack of vision or message from the Democrats that reached these voters at all. In 2020 Gen Z men and Latino men came out in droves for Bernie Sanders and remained majority Democrat for Joe Biden. In 2024 Donald Trump won these voters by clear margins. A historic failing for Democrats.
Democrats banked on Republicans and offered them a prime spot in the coalition and messaging tailored specifically to them. Democrats banked on the post-Dobbs effect turning out women, which seemingly did not materialize this time around. There is also some indication a good number of women don’t blame Donald Trump for the overturn of Roe v. Wade and believe him when he says he will not institute a national abortion ban. Likewise a third of voters declared democracy their main issue but it is not clear that meant voting against Trump for many voters. Democrats failed on their own terms.
The Democrats need to seriously reckon with what happened here. Donald Trump was seen as un-electable and repulsive to their party and the American voters delivered him the popular vote. Likely because he offered them a path to show their frustration. Something Democrats just expected voters to go without and ultimately they refused.