Kamala and Trump Debate
Just shy of two months ago Donald Trump and Joe Biden took to the debate stage and it spelled disaster for Joe Biden and eventually toppled his candidacy. Prior to that debate the conventional wisdom among commentators and political scientists was that debates really did not matter very much (outside of the Kennedy-Nixon debate, the first televised debate in U.S. history). So, how will Kamala and Trump’s debate shape the race going forward? Will it matter?
These are Unprecedented Times
The biggest thing Kamala Harris has to do is introduce herself to the American voters. This is probably the biggest stage she will have to do that before the election barring another debate, but even then this will likely have the highest viewership. Polling suggests people want more information on Kamala Harris’s plans for the economy in particular. It also suggests they may associate her with the current era and Biden administration than the Harris team would like. Still, people have a lot of questions, Kamala isn’t quite a blank canvas but there is a lot of room to make an impression and at this stage in a presidential campaign that has never been the case this close to an election.
That gives this debate a lot more of a chance to move the needle than previous debates. Kamala taking the spot at the top of the ticket and the public never having seen Kamala Harris and Donald Trump interact will likely draw disproportionate attention to this debate. There is reason to believe that this could be a more impactful debate than debates past. It seems very unlikely it will create a cataclysmic change in the race for Democrats as the Biden-Trump debate did but it might not be as irrelevant as debates of the past.
That Said, it’s Still a Political Debate
The consensus among academics and commentators has long been that debates don’t matter. During the 2020 election researchers at Harvard and U.C. Berkeley analyzed 56 television debates spread across 31 elections in the U.S., Canada, U.K., and Germany. The research followed over 90,000 voters in these countries and checked up with them periodically before and after the debates and election. The consensus in the study was that people don’t tune in to have their minds changed and by debate season in most countries with polarized politics people are already locked in. While they found some 17% to 29% of voters made up their minds in the last 2 months for this group of voters in particular, debates are not a significant part of their decision making process and many do not tune in at all.
As it stands now some 25% of Independent voters in the United States say they are undecided with the number fluctuating from 15% or so to 25% or so depending on the state. Self described Republicans and Democratic voters are predictably locked in. Whether and when these voters make up their minds remains to be seen but the debate will likely be part of that equation. Historically, it hasn’t been but again, these are unprecedented times.
Donald Trump is Donald Trump, Kamala Harris is Unknown
The other thing is Donald Trump is unpredictable and he is up against an opponent we haven’t seen him campaign against and who he’s struggled to find a counter narrative that resonates. The race is closer than ever. It is unclear how Donald Trump will react on the debate stage which despite his teflon status creates the potential for a dramatic upheaval, one way or the other. Donald Trump has also shown restraint on the debate stage in the past and maybe he will again.
Again, Americans don’t know Kamala Harris, which cuts both ways. It gives her an opportunity to make a good first impression if she hasn’t already and provide new information that locks in voters. It also gives her the opportunity to do the exact opposite of that and drive voters to Donald Trump. That isn’t exactly profound, but it’s true. This debate might not matter, but with the stakes as high as they are and the election so unpredictable, it’s probably best to assume they do and prepare accordingly.