Trump and Vance Reshape the World Order
President Zelensky of Ukraine came to the United States seemingly with intentions of signing a mineral rights deal with the United States and sending negotiations between the United States and Russia along in the process.
JD Vance Goes After Zelensky
Instead JD Vance jumped down Zelensky’s throat, followed by Donald Trump, both of whom made it clear that U.S. policy toward Ukraine has shifted dramatically. Under Trump the United States is an aggrieved benefactor with JD Vance going as far as accusing Zelensky of not saying thank you and demanding him do so. Trump told Zelensky he didn’t have the cards to be making demands and accused him of disrespecting the American people.
Ultimately the meeting appeared to blow up the Ukraine-U.S. relationship at a time where tensions are as high as ever and Europe is not equipped to pick up the slack. The war in Ukraine has been pitched as liberal democracy standing up against Russian authoritarianism and Trump turning from Zelensky signals a turn against that traditional western liberal partnership broadly. It is deeper than just a turn from Ukraine, it is in a very real way a turn from Europe as well.
Earlier in the week French president Emmanuel Macron visited the White House to try and strengthen that relationship and bring Trump along with a strong Europe. Many hailed the visit a success, or at least not a failure, but Zelensky’s visit shows it is more than the on again off again kind of personal transactional politics of Trump that are driving this divide, but instead a genuine ideology. Donald Trump himself is not the ideologue. JD Vance very much is. However, the American First movement and its dictate to leave Ukraine goes deeper than either of those individuals.
Breaking with Neocon Foreign Policy
The Trump years has been a battle waged between the traditional Reagan era Republican establishment and the inherent unpopularity the neocon Bush years brought to American foreign policy. Trump is savvy enough to know you can’t campaign on Bush era foreign policy but not actually committed to peace enough to fully break with it. Which leads to this middle ground where Trump sells himself as the antiwar candidate but largely backs American military might.
Ukraine might be a significant example wherein Trump prioritizes ending a conflict. He negotiated a settlement in Afghanistan but Biden finalized it. Here Trump’s position seems to be that Ukraine can’t fight the war or negotiate terms without the United States backing and if they fail to end the war on the United State’s terms than Trump is taking away that backing. It isn’t clear where Ukraine would look to fill that void.
The fear from European onlookers has always been that Putin would not stop with Ukraine. Countries like Poland, Lithuania, Finland, and others have legitimate fears that Putin’s alleged historical mandate may stretch just a little bit further if given the chance. It seems like a pretty sensible worry given recent history.
Arming Europe Once More
If the United States backs off Ukraine, or its commitments to NATO defense, both of which have been hinted at, the structure of European defense will have to change fundamentally. Beyond increasing commitments to NATO countries like Germany and France are now compelled to build armaments and standing armies in a way they have not really had to face since the end of World War II.
In a world where Putin does not take advantage of the time it takes for European self defense to get online, that might not be such a bad thing. The fear though is rearming Europe leads to the unstable powder keg that set off two world wars. At least eventually. And that is the reason the United States has been so willing to shell out for European defense for so long. That has seemingly all changed in an instant.
Fears of World War III may be overblown, maybe not. But whether reasonable or not the fear that Europe will become a lot more volatile is reasonable and worrisome. That is all but guaranteed. Perhaps the next configuration will be better than what the post war order has created, by many’s estimation that would not be a hard thing to do, but the risks are World War III. Trump accused Zelensky of gambling with World War III and he almost certainly is, but so is everybody involved.